Help CenterPexapark’s 2025 Low Renewables Buildout sensitivity sources assumptions from ERCOT’s long term load forecast and resource adequacy reports. We use these publicly available datasets to ensure that the outcomes of our model are entirely objective and transparent.
ERCOT assumes that peak load will grow up to 62% between 2025 and 2030. A significant amount of this load will come from data centers, crypto, hydrogen, and the electrification of oil & gas extraction.
On the supply-side, this case assumes that renewables and BESS projects with signed interconnection agreements interconnect to the grid within one year of expected COD, but those without financial security face more significant delays. For years beyond the interconnection queue, we extrapolate continued growth for wind, solar, and BESS.
Summary of all supply and demand assumptions:
| Year | Solar | Wind | BESS | Avg Demand | Peak Demand |
| 2025 | 35.6 | 40.7 | 17.6 | 55.5 | 85.4 |
| 2026 | 48.3 | 42 | 23.4 | 63.7 | 94.2 |
| 2027 | 58.8 | 44.4 | 28.6 | 74 | 103.7 |
| 2028 | 60.8 | 45.2 | 29.4 | 90.5 | 120.9 |
| 2029 | 63 | 46.1 | 30.3 | 101.5 | 127.9 |
| 2030 | 65.2 | 47.1 | 31.2 | 112.3 | 138 |
| 2031 | 67.4 | 48 | 32.1 | 118.5 | 143.4 |
| 2032 | 69.8 | 49 | 33.1 | 123.1 | 146.9 |
| 2033 | 72.2 | 49.9 | 34 | 125.4 | 147.5 |
Sources:
Load: 2025 Long Term Load Forecast https://www.ercot.com/gridinfo/load/forecast
Renewables: Resource Capacity Trends Report https://www.ercot.com/gridinfo/resource