Help CenterPexapark’s 2025 Base Case sensitivity sources assumptions from ERCOT’s long term load forecast and resource adequacy reports. We use these publicly available datasets to ensure that the outcomes of our model are entirely objective and transparent.
ERCOT assumes that peak load will grow up to 62% between 2025 and 2030. A significant amount of this load will come from data centers, crypto, hydrogen, and the electrification of oil & gas extraction.
On the supply side, this case assumes that most renewable and BESS projects with signed interconnection agreements will come online within the next two years. However, due to the evolving regulatory landscape, we anticipate a significant slowdown in solar deployment between 2026 and 2028. Beyond that period, solar development continues, but at a more moderate pace.
Summary of all supply and demand assumptions:
| Year | Solar | Wind | BESS | Avg Demand | Peak Demand |
| 2025 | 35.6 | 40.7 | 17.6 | 55.5 | 85.4 |
| 2026 | 48.3 | 42.0 | 23.4 | 63.7 | 94.2 |
| 2027 | 48.6 | 42.3 | 40.0 | 74 | 103.7 |
| 2028 | 48.6 | 42.6 | 41.2 | 90.5 | 120.9 |
| 2029 | 50.4 | 42.9 | 42.4 | 101.5 | 127.9 |
| 2030 | 52.2 | 43.2 | 43.7 | 112.3 | 138 |
| 2031 | 53.9 | 43.5 | 44.9 | 118.5 | 143.4 |
| 2032 | 55.8 | 43.8 | 46.3 | 123.1 | 146.9 |
| 2033 | 57.8 | 44.1 | 47.6 | 125.4 | 147.5 |
Sources:
Load: 2025 Long Term Load Forecast https://www.ercot.com/gridinfo/load/forecast
Renewables: Resource Capacity Trends Report https://www.ercot.com/gridinfo/resource